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Tic Tac Toe is a casino game based on the actual game by the same name. A reader told me he saw it at Coushatta Casino Resort in Kinder, LA. There are three bets available: X, O, and a tie. Cards marked X or O are drawn randomly on a tic tac toe board to determine the winning outcome.

The following table shows the probability of 0 to 9 X cards, and the probability of a tie given that number of Xs. The first column is the number of Xs out of 9. The second column is the probability of the given number of Xs on the card. The third column is the conditional probability of a tie, given the number of Xs for that row. The fourth column is the product of the second and third column. The lower right cell shows the probability of a tie is 6.3735%.
| Number Xs | Probability | Conditional Probability of a Tie | Product | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.001631 | 0 | 0 | 
| 1 | 0.015898 | 0 | 0 | 
| 2 | 0.067526 | 0 | 0 | 
| 3 | 0.163991 | 0 | 0 | 
| 4 | 0.250955 | 0.126984 | 0.031867 | 
| 5 | 0.250955 | 0.126984 | 0.031867 | 
| 6 | 0.163991 | 0 | 0 | 
| 7 | 0.067526 | 0 | 0 | 
| 8 | 0.015898 | 0 | 0 | 
| 9 | 0.001631 | 0 | 0 | 
| Total | 1.000000 | 0.063735 | 
If there are 4 Xs and 5 Os, then there are combin(9,4)=126 ways to place the Xs and Os on the board. Of those 126, 16 result in a tie. The image below shows the three tie patterns, and the number of ways each can be rotated or reflected. So the probability of a tie, given 4 or 5 Xs, is 16/126 = 12.70%.
Once it can be accepted that the probability of a tie is 6.3735%, the rest is easy. The probability that there is not a tie is 100%-6.3735% = 93.6265%. The probability of X or O winning is each half of that, or 46.8133%.
The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return of each outcome of the X and O bets. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 3.19%.
| Event | Probability | Pays | Return | 
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 0.468133 | 1 | 0.468133 | 
| Tie | 0.063735 | -0.5 | -0.031867 | 
| Loss | 0.468133 | -1 | -0.468133 | 
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.031867 | 
The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return of each outcome of the Tie bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 4.40%.
| Event | Probability | Pays | Return | 
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 0.063735 | 14 | 0.892286 | 
| Loss | 0.936265 | -1 | -0.936265 | 
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.043980 | 
The final table shows the house edge of each bet for 4 to 8 decks, assuming no other rule changes.
| Decks | X/O | Tie | 
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3.19% | 4.40% | 
| 5 | 3.17% | 4.78% | 
| 6 | 3.17% | 5.03% | 
| 7 | 3.16% | 5.20% | 
| 8 | 3.16% | 5.34% | 
 Written by:Michael Shackleford
Written by:Michael Shackleford